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汇添富曾刚:电商货币基金带来无风险收益率基准重建

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年01月23日 01:09:29
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(多)(的)(一)(致)(性)(,对)(方)(向)(和)(节)(奏)(的)(预)(测)(也)(大)(体)(契)(合)(,大)(多)(数)(分)(析)(师)(都)(推)(导)(出)(了)(正)(确)(的)(结)(论)(,其)(中)(中)(信)(建)(投)(证)(券)(更)(是)(以)(“春)(夏)(寻)(芳)(犹)(可)(盼)(,秋)(冬)(应)(是)(苦)(寒)(来)(”为)(标)(题)(,观)(点)(鲜)(明)(,贯)(穿)(了)(今)(年)(的)(市)(场)(。然)(而)(,今)(年)(十)(年)(期)(国)(债)(大)(幅)(突)(破)(4.2%一)(线)(,收)(益)(率)(达)(到)(4.7%的)(历)(史)(第)(二)(高)(峰)(;四)(季)(度)(信)(用)(债)(更)(是)(持)(续)(补)(跌)(,一)(级)(市)(场)(发)(行)(利)(率)(与)(二)(级)(市)(场)(收)(益)(率)(交)(替)(上)(升)(,8%的)(城)(投)(债)(发)(行)(利)(率)(已)(然)(被)(超)(越)(,不)(仅)(寒)(意)(远)(超)(预)(期)(,而)(且)(短)(期)(还)(看)(不)(到)(回)(落)(的)(希)(望)(。  市)(场)(预)(期)(之)(外)(的)(下)(跌)(,已)(经)(不)(是)(经)(济)(增)(速)(、通)(胀)(、公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(等)(传)(统)(因)(素)(所)(能)(解)(释)(,利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(和)(机)(构)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(上)(升)(构)(成)(了)(新)(的)(长)(期)(和)(中)(期)(因)(素)(,还)(将)(继)(续)(影)(响)(着)(债)(券)(市)(场)(。从)(近)(期)(的)(各)(种)(信)(息)(看)(,银)(行)(非)(标)(资)(产)(仍)(在)(被)(动)(扩)(张)(,信)(托)(行)(业)(面)(临)(兑)(付)(风)(险)(,同)(时)(债)(市)(担)(忧)(真)(实)(违)(约)(的)(发)(生)(,资)(金)(面)(难)(言)(好)(转)(,债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(高)(位)(盘)(整)(的)(概)(率)(较)(高)(,苦)(寒)(很)(可)(能)(还)(需)(要)(一)(整)(个)(春)(天)(才)(能)(慢)(慢)(化)(解)(。  但)(另)(一)(方)(面)(,互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(火)(力)(凶)(猛)(,各)(种)(“宝)(”名)(至)(实)(归)(,众)(多)(的)(网)(络)(巨)(头)(着)(眼)(于)(争)(夺)(客)(户)(,大)(手)(笔)(贴)(钱)(来)(保)(障)(确)(定)(性)(的)(收)(益)(,就)(当)(做)(是)(“土)(豪)(们)(”的)(一)(笔)(广)(告)(费)(而)(已)(,其)(效)(果)(却)(远)(远)(超)(过)(了)(一)(般)(的)(广)(告)(投)(放)(。喧)(闹)(之)(后)(我)(们)(把)(视)(线)(转)(回)(到)(投)(资)(层)(面)(,淘)(宝)(上)(最)(好)(卖)(的)(是)(货)(币)(基)(金)(,再)(次)(是)(其)(他)(的)(固)(定)(收)(益)(产)(品)(,而)(权)(益)(类)(的)(则)(申)(购)(很)(少)(,说)(明)(在)(网)(络)(上)(大)(家)(更)(需)(要)(确)(定)(性)(、稳)(定)(性)(的)(标)(准)(化)(产)(品)(。而)(在)(货)(币)(基)(金)(的)(分)(类)(中)(,电)(商)(专)(享)(的)(货)(币)(基)(金)(又)(大)(大)(优)(于)(传)(统)(的)(货)(币)(基)(金)(,优)(势)(更)(为)(明)(显)(,客)(户)(分)(散)(,平)(均)(每)(个)(账)(户)(只)(在)(几)(千)(至)(数)(万)(元)(之)(间)(,流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(的)(压)(力)(急)(剧)(下)(降)(,为)(组)(合)(运)(作)(带)(来)(了)(巨)(大)(的)(空)(间)(,从)(内)(在)(机)(制)(上)(,电)(商)(货)(币)(基)(金)(的)(收)(益)(率)(将)(持)(续)(取)(得)(相)(对)(于)(传)(统)(货)(币)(的)(优)(势)(。汇)(添)(富)(现)(金)(宝)(货)(币)(基)(金)(成)(立)(以)(来)(一)(直)(稳)(定)(在)(5%以)(上)(,最)(近)(在)(5.7%左)(右)(,操)(作)(便)(利)(,实)(时)(取)(现)(,支)(付)(功)(能)(等)(还)(会)(得)(到)(不)(断)(的)(提)(升)(。中)(信)(证)(券)(有)(一)(份)(报)(告)(,大)(力)(推)(荐)(电)(商)(货)(币)(基)(金)(,认)(为)(货)(币)(基)(金)(将)(在)(2-3年)(内)(从)(现)(有)(5、6000亿)(的)(总)(规)(模)(迈)(向)(2.2万)(亿)(的)(新)(高)(度)(,大)(致)(相)(当)(于)(活)(期)(存)(款)(中)(的)(5%,如)(果)(达)(到)(相)(应)(的)(总)(规)(模)(,拥)(有)(足)(够)(多)(的)(客)(户)(基)(数)(,借)(助)(于)(互)(联)(网)(的)(推)(动)(,电)(商)(货)(币)(基)(金)(的)(收)(益)(率)(将)(成)(为)(重)(要)(的)(全)(社)(会)(的)(无)(风)(险)(收)(益)(率)(基)(准)(之)(一)(。  无)(风)(险)(收)(益)(率)(将)(深)(刻)(地)(影)(响)(各)(类)(资)(产)(的)(配)(置)(,以)(当)(前)(的)(5%为)(例)(,套)(用)(一)(个)(粗)(浅)(的)(逻)(辑)(,股)(市)(的)(整)(体)(市)(盈)(率)(是)(否)(该)(是)(5%的)(倒)(数)(即)(20倍)(呢)(?过)(去)(持)(续)(做)(到)(5-7%的)(债)(基)(就)(是)(好)(债)(基)(,现)(在)(是)(否)(需)(要)(7-9%呢)(?某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(,下)(半)(年)(债)(基)(的)(净)(赎)(回)(已)(经)(反)(映)(了)(无)(风)(险)(收)(益)(基)(准)(上)(升)(的)(影)(响)(,产)(品)(定)(位)(的)(倒)(逼)(也)(必)(然)(会)(推)(展)(到)(投)(资)(层)(面)(上)(,债)(券)(基)(金)(的)(资)(产)(配)(置)(策)(略)(如)(何)(来)(适)(应)(新)(的)(形)(势)(,投)(资)(能)(力)(的)(几)(大)(关)(键)(要)(素)(的)(排)(序)(注)(定)(会)(发)(生)(变)(化)(,大)(类)(资)(产)(配)(置)(,杠)(杆)(套)(利)(,对)(某)(一)(类)(属)(的)(重)(点)(配)(置)(,主)(动)(防)(御)(的)(策)(略)(安)(排)(等)(等)(,孰)(先)(孰)(后)(?我)(相)(信)(必)(然)(不)(同)(于)(以)(往)(,在)(这)(里)(,笔)(者)(先)(提)(出)(这)(个)(话)(题)(,留)(待)(同)(业)(一)(起)(探)(讨)(。  从)(另)(一)(个)(角)(度)(,无)(风)(险)(收)(益)(率)(的)(提)(升)(会)(加)(大)(其)(他)(资)(产)(对)(基)(准)(收)(益)(的)(敏)(感)(性)(,加)(剧)(规)(模)(的)(变)(动)(,直)(至)(达)(成)(新)(的)(平)(衡)(,这)(正)(是)(下)(半)(年)(债)(基)(所)(面)(临)(的)(局)(面)(。不)(过)(,在)(债)(市)(面)(临)(质)(疑)(之)(时)(,也)(有)(理)(性)(的)(观)(察)(,一)(位)(资)(深)(的)(记)(者)(朋)(友)(来)(电)(,他)(认)(为)(眼)(下)(继)(续)(唱)(空)(债)(市)(的)(观)(点)(是)(滞)(后)(的)(,甚)(至)(还)(可)(能)(还)(是)(反)(向)(的)(。固)(定)(收)(益)(投)(资)(的)(最)(大)(收)(益)(来)(自)(于)(债)(券)(的)(票)(息)(,当)(前)(信)(用)(级)(别)(达)(到)(AA+的)(优)(质)(债)(券)(票)(息)(也)(可)(能)(达)(到)(8%,信)(用)(风)(险)(较)(低)(且)(适)(合)(于)(配)(置)(的)(部)(分)(优)(质)(AA债)(券)(票)(息)(也)(已)(超)(过)(8%,在)(市)(场)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(时)(,普)(通)(债)(基)(将)(有)(可)(能)(获)(得)(7%以)(上)(的)(回)(报)(;货)(币)(基)(金)(受)(益)(于)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(,再)(叠)(加)(今)(年)(政)(策)(推)(动)(降)(杠)(杆)(的)(资)(金)(面)(因)(素)(,处)(于)(有)(利)(于)(获)(取)(高)(收)(益)(的)(时)(段)(,如)(果)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(有)(所)(松)(动)(,会)(早)(于)(其)(他)(资)(产)(而)(回)(落)(,届)(时)(债)(券)(基)(金)(的)(相)(对)(价)(值)(又)(会)(增)(强)(,进)(攻)(属)(性)(取)(代)(当)(前)(的)(防)(御)(属)(性)(。利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(进)(程)(中)(,无)(风)(险)(收)(益)(率)(的)(抬)(升)(不)(仅)(会)(影)(响)(债)(券)(基)(金)(,也)(会)(影)(响)(到)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(的)(资)(产)(类)(别)(,带)(动)(不)(同)(资)(产)(的)(定)(位)(与)(配)(置)(策)(略)(往)(复)(运)(动)(,这)(就)(是)(无)(风)(险)(收)(益)(率)(作)(用)(于)(社)(会)(的)(基)(本)(方)(式)(。点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(<br />)!

作者:【龙虎和代理】


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